Opendorse Pegs the NIL Market at $4.5 Billion. Here's Where the Money Goes
By faNILy Team ·
The NIL market keeps getting bigger, at least by one company's count. On Thursday, Opendorse, a brand-to-athlete marketplace that's been in the endorsement space since 2012, released its annual NIL report. It estimates the market at $4.5 billion for 2026-27, a 50% increase over its previous estimate, and projects it will reach $5 billion by 2028-29, according to FootballScoop.
Keep in mind these are Opendorse's own estimates, built on its own platform data. The company says that data covers more than 200,000 athlete users, more than 100,000 NIL activities and over $250 million in tracked NIL compensation. Here are the takeaways that matter most for athletes and fans.
Two economies, not one
The clearest theme in the report is that college sports now runs on two parallel money streams. One is revenue sharing, which schools pay directly under a cap that Opendorse puts at $21.3 million. The other is commercial NIL, which comes from brands and other outside partners.
The report's own framing makes the point: it looks at how Power 4 programs are building NIL budgets beyond the $21.3 million revenue-sharing cap. FootballScoop reported that nearly 37% of total compensation to Power 4 athletes comes from outside the revenue-sharing structure, compared to 1.8% for the Group of 6.
The gap between tiers is huge
- Commercial NIL: an average of about $13.5 million in the Power 4 versus $173,000 in the Group of 6, per FootballScoop's summary of the report
- By conference: Big Ten programs averaged $48 million in combined revenue sharing and third-party NIL, with the SEC at $44.5 million
- Outside-the-cap share: nearly 37% for Power 4 athletes versus 1.8% for the Group of 6
Those gaps help explain why the debate over associated entities and multimedia rights deals has been so heated. At the top of the sport, the money from outside partners is a big piece of the pie.
Who's earning
A Power 4 quarterback is the highest-paid athlete in college sports at an average of $1.5 million, FootballScoop reported. Men's basketball players averaged about $14,000 per NIL deal, and women's basketball forwards earned about $137,500 a year.
Why the market is growing
FootballScoop pointed to the broader creator economy as one driver, noting that Meta, the owner of Instagram, increased its spending on influencers to $3 billion. Athletes with real audiences are part of that wave, and the report itself describes athlete audiences as some of the most valuable inventory in the influencer economy.
That's a big deal for a swimmer, gymnast or softball player who'll never see a revenue-share check the size of a quarterback's. The report also covers commercial opportunities across Olympic sports, and for those athletes, their audience is their asset.
What it means for fans
For fans, the report lines up with something we already see every day: athletes across every sport are building real audiences. The value isn't only in big brand campaigns. It's in the direct relationship between an athlete and the people who follow them.
That's the corner of NIL we're focused on at faNILy, where fans can engage directly with athletes they care about, whatever sport they play.
What it means for athletes
If you're an athlete outside the spotlight, the takeaway is that brands are paying attention to audiences, not just stat lines. Consistent content and an engaged following are worth building. Start there, and keep good records of every deal.